Business & Tech

Economic Forecast: Out of Recession, Not Out of the Woods

The Neponset Valley Chamber of Commerce invited a three-person panel to speak on the economy for the next fiscal year.

The recession may be over, but it doesn't quite feel like it.

This was the general theme of the Neponset Valley Chamber of Commerce's breakfast Tuesday morning at the  in Norwood. The event included a buffet breakfast and a three-person panel on the economic forecast for the next fiscal year, and was attended by business people from several surrounding communities.

NVCC President Tom O'Rourke said that the event was a successful, intelligent discussion and analysis from three different viewpoints, though the main message is still sobering.

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Speakers included Michael J. Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation; George Donnelly, editor of Boston Business Journal; and Michael Goodman, associate professor and chair of the department of public policy at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth.

Goodman said that any attempt to predict the future is faulty.

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"It's an occupational hazard to try to look into the crystal ball," he said to the near 100 people gathered in the hotel conference room.

Goodman said that although this recession had an economic shock equal to the Great Depression, and was comparable in length and depth as well, it was the different nature of this recession that allowed the current rebound. For Massachusetts particularly, he said, reliance on the innovation and technology sectors helped buoy the sinking economy.

"I do think when people call it the 'Great Recession' they've got it right," Goodman said.

One of the biggest problems Goodman said he sees going forward is the possibility of a skills-gap problem. He noted that this was a very blue collar recession - affecting real estate, construction and non-technology production workers the worst. As a result of the advancing technology and innovation sectors versus the decline in the previously mentioned sectors, Goodman said there could be near 25 construction workers for every one available position while we experience unfilled positions in the technology positions.

Widmer, who has more than 20 years of management and political experience in both the public and private sectors in the state, said that although there has been good economic recovery in fiscal year 2011, 2012 may be another issue.

The money that helped bring back the economy, Widmer said, was a one-time federal stimulus package - a stimulus that ends next year. He said that the issue is when businesses, "fall off the cliff in fiscal 2012."

Widmer also took time to discuss the challenges that the health care sector faces and the impact that has on town and city economies, saying that the decrease in available jobs also led to an increase in entitlement payouts.

"Our health care sector is really being squeezed in a way that I haven't seen in the last 25 years," Widmer said.

Donnelly said that coming from the BBJ, his view may be slightly skewed - as their focus is often on the innovation sector, which he and both of his predecessors pegged as the most secure in the current market. He, like Goodman, said Massachusetts especially has this advantage.

"Frankly we are one of the best places in the country to be," Donnelly said.


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